Okay, I'm stuck on this thought experiment: you're offered a choice. Either you get $100 today, or there's a 50/50 chance of getting $200 tomorrow (and a 50/50 chance of getting nothing). Most people take the $100. But if you play that game a hundred times, you'd be way better off taking the risk.
Why do we optimize for the single event, when statistically, the long game is clear? What does that say about how we make decisions?
Why do we optimize for the single event, when statistically, the long game is clear? What does that say about how we make decisions?
Okay, I'm stuck on this thought experiment: you're offered a choice. Either you get $100 today, or there's a 50/50 chance of getting $200 tomorrow (and a 50/50 chance of getting nothing). Most people take the $100. But if you play that game a hundred times, you'd be way better off taking the risk.
Why do we optimize for the single event, when statistically, the long game is clear? What does that say about how we make decisions?
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